Someone is whistling past the Election Day graveyard. Bush has had a terrible month, his campaign a mishmash of missed chances and mixed messages. In Washington, power-lunching Republicans fret about the Austin Powers’ perceived ineptitude. “They’re blowing it,” said one. But in Bush’s world, where the glasses are always half full, the wonder isn’t that Gore is ahead–but that he’s not farther ahead. Some observers agree. “The economy is great and Bush has been a lousy candidate so far,” said polltaker John Zogby. “Yet Gore isn’t running away with the race at this point.”
Not quite. In the new NEWSWEEK Poll, Gore lost two points of his Labor Day lead, though he’s still ahead 47 to 39 percent in a four-way race among registered voters. The margin is the same (49-41 percent) among likely voters. Other polls, which interview more people and use different methods for sifting likely votes, show a closer race. The Reuters-Zogby poll had Gore ahead by 6, CNN-Gallup had him up by 3, the ABC-Washington Post poll had it even. But other numbers in the NEWSWEEK Poll should worry Bush. A month ago he led on most personal qualities and many issues, even several traditionally Democratic ones. Now Gore matches him on leadership and is ahead on every issue save one–national defense. Gore is ahead by more than 20 points on the crucial question of who can best handle health care and prescription drugs.
What’s gone wrong for Bush? Plenty. He didn’t anticipate the furious pace of the campaign in late summer. He has yet to give a systematic response to Gore’s Pumped Populism. He’s wasted time talking tactics–which ads he’ll run, which debates he’ll take part in. (After weeks of refusing to negotiate with a bipartisan debate commission, he caved in last week and said he’d do so.) His running mate, Dick Cheney, has been on the defensive over lucrative stock options and his lax voting habits in Texas. Fate–in the form of open mikes–hasn’t helped. Bush was heard privately calling a New York Times reporter a “major-league a——.” It was a glimpse of Bush’s less appealing frat-boy side.
What does Bush do now? To better dramatize the benefits of his tax cuts and other proposals, he’ll do fewer speeches and more “one-on-ones” with voters. His operatives have taken control of the Republican National Committee, which can be expected to attack Gore more lustily. Bush, who thinks of himself as a marathoner, will campaign harder. His upbeat style notwithstanding, he’s always relished the thought of attacking Gore–and now, in the role of underdog, he’ll do so. After a week of staying upfront in his new, larger plane, Bush late last week was patrolling aft, looking for breeze to shoot. “Just remember,” he told an aide, “this is when you find out who your friends are.” It’s also when you find out who the candidate really is.
