WEYMOUTH: Is the U.S. getting bogged down in Afghanistan? BLAIR: Before [September 11], we knew terrorists were out there, but our reaction was primarily defensive–more guards and that kind of thing. The big change after September 11 was to go after terrorists. In my part of the world, what we needed to do varied country by country. Singapore and Malaysia were willing to take action. In the Philippines, President Gloria Arroyo stood strong against terrorist groups like Abu Sayyaf but needed some help, so we are helping.
How do you see the fight against terrorism in Indonesia? I don’t think Indonesia has been as aggressive as have the other countries in the region… We don’t have the leverage of links that we had in the past to the Indonesian Army. And [for Indonesia’s political leaders] there are not a lot of political points to be made by going after Muslim groups.
Some allege that the administration and the intelligence community should have been able to predict and stop the September 11 attack. What do you think? We didn’t connect the dots. We thought the war was against overseas military and diplomatic missions, and we could keep it at that level. It was an understandable decision but it turned out to be wrong. There was Khobar Towers; then the Nairobi suicide bombers [hit the U.S. Embassy in Kenya]; the USS Cole was hit by suiciders in a boat. They were ratcheting up their attacks. If we had taken those lines and looked at them, we should have started four to five years ago [to fight terrorism].
Was it the Clinton administration’s fault? It was the fault of all of us.
Do you think there will be another attack? The chances are a lot less than on September 10. We’ve got them on the run and they don’t have the time to plan, scheme and take flying lessons.
How high is the likelihood of a war between India and Pakistan? I am really worried about it. From what I hear from the Indians, if there is another incident like the attack on their Parliament, they will have to take action. The matter of war or peace depends on some terrorist group. So you have a real wild card that could kick off a war between two nations with big armed forces and nuclear weapons. It’s a scary situation.
What is your impression of Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf? Some used to say he allowed the Kashmiri terrorists to train in Afghanistan and cross Pakistan. He has definitely taken action against those groups. He feels they are a threat to him and to his country.
Has he taken enough action? The Indians are looking to see if Pakistan has cut down the rate of infiltration across the border [with Kashmir]. Right now the weather is India’s ally. It’s hard to get across those mountain passes. But the Indians are looking at what happens in the springtime when the passes are open: will they be controlled better than last year? All of us are worried about this thing spinning out of control.
Another potential flash point in your area is the Taiwan-China situation. The military situation is more stable than headlines would lead you to believe. Right now, China can cause a lot of damage to Taiwan. They have missiles pointed at [Taiwan] and numbers that in certain areas could overwhelm Taiwan’s higher quality equipment. But the Chinese do not have the ability to invade and hold Taiwan. And the situation will not change if the U.S. carries out what we said we will do under the Taiwan Relations Act, which is to ensure a sufficient defense of Taiwan. So the military situation looks bad for both sides, and I think that is good for peace.
In East Asia Al Qaeda operates in… ? There are organized groups in the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore. There are elements who help them in Thailand and Indonesia… There have been groups that come into Japan and Korea to study our forces since most of them are stationed there.
Are you worried about Al Qaeda attacks on your forces? Yes. They were planning in Singapore to kill sailors riding their bikes. It’s chilling… These groups are not Al Qaeda cells but they are sympathizers to its goal–which is killing Americans.
